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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 22 May 15
U.S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT AT 16 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.0 million short ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE ACHIEVED ITS BEST EVER TOTAL COAL EXPORT TURNOVER OF 159 MILLION TONS IN 2014
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $900 million ...
Thursday, 21 May 15
ATLANTIC PANAMAX MARKET STARTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week on the green last week, purely on the back of improved Capesize performance, while the rest o ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
LOWER PRICES SEEN IN NEWBUILDING MARKET ON LOW DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Cash-rich ship owners, or at least, owners with substantial access to financing will be among the prime candidates, who will reap the benefits of t ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - JOHN N. COTZIAS
Since Early October 2014 the tanker market has been experiencing a very positive momentum and has continued its strong performance so far in 2015. ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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