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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 20 May 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAINED M-O-M, W-O-W
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 increased month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap has increas ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
BUKIT ASAM'S AVERAGE EXPORT PRICE WAS UNDER PRESSURE DURING Q1
COALspot.com: Indonesia’s state owned coal producer saw their profits fall in the first quarter of the year compared to the same period last ...
Wednesday, 20 May 15
IRON ORE PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON LOW DEMAND, HIGH OUTPUT - FITCH
Iron ore prices will stay low for several years due to increasing supply, weak demand growth in China and the slower-than-expected closure of high- ...
Tuesday, 19 May 15
KOMIPO IS SEEKING TOTAL 2.34 MMT OF HCV AND LCV COAL FOR 2015 - 2017
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 2.34 million Metric Tons (MT) of HCV ...
Monday, 18 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SCORE MONTHLY GAINS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.87 per MT (1.99%) month over month and lost US$ 0.03 week on w ...
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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