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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 03 July 15
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE EQUALS SEVEN-YEAR LOW - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry fell during the three months to May 2015 to a level equal to the lowest rating recorded in the p ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
TECHNOLOGY AND INNOVATION IN MINING 2015 - IXG
Information Exchange Group’s Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015- International Summit on Mining
Press Release: The inaugural editi ...
Thursday, 02 July 15
THE PERFORMANCE OF THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT PUSHED DRY BULK MARKET TO UPWARD LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market continued its upward movement last week, with the BDI closing off on Friday (26 June) in excess of 800 points, wh ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
Q4'15 AND Q1'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and down week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ ...
Wednesday, 01 July 15
BEIJING HAS OFFICIALLY EXTENDED BY TWO YEARS ITS SUBSIDY PROGRAM TO SUPPORT LOCAL SHIPPING COMPANIES IN SCRAPPING THEIR OLD TONNAGE - INTERMODAL
Last week, Beijing has officially extended by two years its subsidy program to support local shipping companies in scrapping their old tonnage in w ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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