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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 July 15
LACK OF FRESH BUSINESS IN THE PACIFIC LEFT CAPESIZE RATES MOVING SIDEWAYS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Intermodal ship broker says in its weekly report that, a different picture from what we saw the previous week was painted during the ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
RIO TINTO'S MODERNISED KITIMAT SMELTER BEGINS PRODUCTION; KITIMAT BECOMING ONE OF THE LOWEST COST SMELTERS IN THE WORLD
COALspot.com: Rio Tinto is preparing its first shipments of metal from its world-class Kitimat aluminium smelter in Canada following an extensive m ...
Wednesday, 08 July 15
Q3'15 INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.14% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP ADVANCED MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.28 per MT (-0.61%) month over month to US$ 45.85 per mt. The swap wa ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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