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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 06 July 15
KOREA MIDLAND POWER COMPANY LIMITED ISSUED A TENDER FOR 250K MT BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 250K Metric Tons (MT) of 5300 kcal/kg NAR coal ...
Monday, 06 July 15
COAL TRADING & RISK MANAGEMENT TRAINING COURSE
Are you ready to invest in yourself and take your trading and risk management strategy to the next level? The Coal Trading & Risk Management Tr ...
Monday, 06 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP; DECLINED D-O-D,W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.53 (1.01%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 05 July 15
THE BALTIC DRY INDEX WAS DOWN 18%; PANAMAX UP 9%
COALspot.com: The freight market was soft during this week. However indices closed slightly firmer end of the week on 3rd July.
The BDI was do ...
Friday, 03 July 15
U.S DELIVERS WEAK FIRST HALF COAL PRODUCTION; 8.8% LOWER Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.5 million short ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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