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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 30 June 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 43.45 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decli ...
Monday, 29 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS UP SLIGHTLY MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.57 (1.11%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Monday, 29 June 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY UP MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 0.49 per MT (1.08%) month over month to US$ 45.77 per mt. The swap was ...
Saturday, 27 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET WAS STEADY EARLIER IN THE WEEK; SOFTEN INTO WEEK'S END
COALspot.com: The freight market remain steady earlier in the week, but towards end of the week BDI and BCI shows some signs of softening.
The ...
Friday, 26 June 15
INDONESIA COAL PRODUCTION FALLS BETWEEN JAN-MAY : JG
The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources announced that coal production declined to 166 million tons between January and May, a 19 percent drop ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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