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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 08 June 15
SHIPPING FLEET GROWTH HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN, AS NEWBUILDINGS AMOUNT TO JUST 329 SHIPS OF ALL TYPES SINCE THE START OF 2015 - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Challenging market conditions have led to the inevitable reconsideration of ship owners’ priorities. Uncertainty has been the norm over the p ...
Monday, 08 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS ADVANCED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery increased US$ 0.65 per MT (1.44%) month over month to US$ 45.65 per mt. The ...
Monday, 08 June 15
Q3'15 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ADVANCED 3.51% TO $52.48 PMT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.78 (3.51%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 07 June 15
PANAMAX INDEX ROSE OVER 13% THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market was up on all segments this past week. The BDI was advanced 3.56% and closed at 610 points. The Cape Index was cli ...
Friday, 05 June 15
U.S PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK; LESS 20.7% COMPARED TO SAME PERIOD IN 2014
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million shor ...
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PTC India Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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