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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- White Energy Company Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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