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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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