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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
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- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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