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Wednesday, 24 June 15
PANAMAXES: THE OUTLOOK REMAINS NEGATIVE AS DEMAND FOR COAL IS DIMINISHING - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
 As we get closer to the end of June, we can safely say that the 1st half of the year is leaving the dry bulk market with a bitter taste that we all wish to forget. The BDI was fluctuating around its lowest point ever recorded for the entire first half. The last two weeks though have given a much needed lift to the market, which nonetheless will need further momentum to make some actual difference in both sentiment and returns. Whether this momentum will be found in order to stabilize market rates at least above OPEX, is something that is hard to predict. However, and since we are coming out of the "dusk" of H1 and slowly moving towards the "dawn" of H2, a recap in titles could be of interest to our readers.
Starting with Capers, levels are currently at the highest point since January. With the Chinese iron ore inventories at their lowest point since November 2013 and with the price of iron ore at slightly above $60/ton, a mild recovery in terms of traded volume is expected. On the supply side, heavy demolition activity in H1 (more than 10mill dwt have been demolished since the beginning of the year) together with slippage, cancellation and conversions of dry bulk orders to tankers or containers, is restricting the growth of an already oversupplied market. On the other hand, China’s decision to support Vale’s iron ore expansion plan, may lead to an increase in iron ore supply. One would think that such decision would help the market recover on the back of tonne miles increase, however since most of Vale's transported iron ore will be shipped in Valemax ships the positive effect on rates will be hard to materialize.
On the Panamaxes, although rates have not seen today's levels since December 2014, the outlook remains negative as demand for coal is diminishing. Environmental concerns in many nations and especially in China have pushed towards usage of cleaner resources of energy. As a result, coal imports have declined significantly YoY and a revival is hard to be expected despite the fact that other big economies like India are increasing demand but doing so in a more moderated level. On the other hand, some support could be founded in the grain market on the back of the increased production of exporting countries like US, Canada and Brazil.
On the smaller sizes, Supramaxes have found support in the Atlantic thanks to grains and petcoke cargoes. India's high petcoke imports from the US have helped increase tonne miles in the sector, while in the Pacific, rates are also correcting upwards on the back of bauxite and nickel ore imports, with China being behind most of the latter. Handysizes are also trying to take advantage of the increase of shipments of both grains and other minor bulk commodities, however the impact on freights is moderate as charterers prefer to use bigger vessels for the transportation of commodities, especially for the Transatlantic trade.
In general, the market is being in doldrums and nothing exciting should be expected during the next couple of months, some spikes could give glimpses of hope. However, the next big thing will most probably be the fourth quarter of this year, a time when the market is traditionally advancing. What will happen this year remains to be seen with great interest. Therefore from the “dusk” of H1 till the “dawn” of the H2 nothing really crazy should be expected, apart maybe from some humans turning into vampires somewhere in a bar close to the Mexican borders...
By Yannis Olziersky
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 June 15
PANAMAX RATE AVERAGED $22.82 PMT IN THE FIRST 10 DAYS OF JUNE FOR THE GRAIN ROUTE FROM SANTOS, BRAZIL, TO QINGDAO, CHINA - INTERMODAL
This year, Brazil will be exporting a record 96 million tons of soybean crop and starting in August the country will begin shipping a second corn c ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
MERS: POTENTIAL CHARTERPARTY IMPLICATIONS - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
South Korea's current outbreak of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) has been the focus of much international at ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
Q3 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP PRICE DOWN 50 CENTS OVER PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month but declined week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was clim ...
Tuesday, 16 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS: PRICES MOVED UP ON THE WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 rose month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 1.70 ...
Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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