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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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