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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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