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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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