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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 08 January 23
ELEVATED COAL PRICE A DRAG ON MARGINS OF DOMESTIC BASE METAL PLAYERS: ICRA
The increased price of coal continue to be a drag on the margin of domestic base metal players with no immediate relief in sight, rating agency ICR ...
Monday, 02 January 23
CHINA’S COAL CONSUMPTION TO PEAK BY 2035: REPORT - REUTERS
China’s primary energy consumption is likely to peak at nearly 6.03 billion tonnes of standard coal between 2030 and 2035, refining giant Chi ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
INDIA'S COAL DEMAND LIKELY TO PEAK BETWEEN 2030-2035: MINISTER - ANI
The demand for coal in India will continue and is likely to peak between 2030-2035, Union Minister of Coal, Mines, and Parliamentary Affairs Pralha ...
Thursday, 29 December 22
RIO TINTO AND PARTNERS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS $450M IN GOVERNMENT COMPENSATION FOR COAL PRICE CAP - THE GUARDIAN
Compensation payments for the Gladstone power plant remain the sticking point in the federal government’s coal price cap compensation negotia ...
Wednesday, 28 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) published a Global Trade Update on December 13th highlighting that global trade wou ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
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- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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