We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
2023 MARINE FUEL MARKET PREDICTIONS - JOHN BERGMAN, AURAMARINE
The drive for decarbonisation we witnessed in 2022 has continued into 2023, demonstrating the shipping’s industry positive strides in the fas ...
Saturday, 28 January 23
COAL GROWTH BLIP NOT TO BE REPEATED - BALTIC EXCHANGE
As 2022 drew to a close, global coal demand looked set to end the year just 1.2% up on the previous year. But that small increase was enough to pus ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
CHINA'S COAL OUTPUT INCREASES IN DECEMBER 2022 - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in December 2022, official data showed.
The country produced 400 million tonne ...
Thursday, 26 January 23
COKING COAL NARROWS THE GAP ON THERMAL AS CHINA REOPENS - REUTERS
The premium of high-grade thermal coal over coking coal in Asia is shrinking as China’s re-opening and ending of a ban on imports from Austra ...
|
|
|
Showing 141 to 145 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
|
| |
| |
|
