We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA, CHINA DEMAND BOOST LOW-RANK THERMAL COAL PRICES IN ASIA - RUSSELL, REUTERS
Signs of stronger import demand from India have arrested the decline in price of the thermal coal grades most commonly sought by the world’s ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA CHEERS THE RETURN OF ‘KING COAL’ AS INDUSTRY SEES BUOYANT FUTURE - REUTERS
India’s coal industry celebrated the return of its major conference after a three-year pandemic hiatus by presenting a bullish view of demand ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
GEO CONNECT ASIA RETURNS IN MARCH TO ACCELERATE THE REGION’S GEOSPATIAL AND LOCATION INTELLIGENCE CAPABILITIES
Press Release: The third edition of GCA will be held in conjunction with Digital Construction Asia and the inaugural Drones Asia – an event d ...
Wednesday, 01 March 23
THE DECLINE IN THE COAL PRICE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR HAS BEEN SIGNIFICANT - INTERMODAL
Last week, the front-month API2 future rose by 3.5%, but since the beginning of the year the future has fallen by 39% to $136.65/t, while the Newca ...
|
|
|
Showing 131 to 135 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The University of Queensland
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
