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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 18 March 23
HEDGE TO OFFSET LNG VOLATILITY, TRADERS TOLD - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A shift in imports from Asia to Europe led to significant volatility in liquefied natural gas shipping last year, prompting industry experts to urg ...
Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
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- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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