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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Saturday, 25 March 23
COAL INDIA HAS STRONG CASE TO INCREASE PRICES, TALKS ON: CMD AGRAWAL - BUSINESS STANDARD
Coal India (CIL) Chairman and Managing Director Pramod Agrawal said on Monday there is a “strong case” for increasing coal prices, and ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
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- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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