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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
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