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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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