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Monday, 23 March 15
IS OIL GETTING READY TO PLUNGE BELOW $40? - FORBES
 KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In my last crude oil market update in late-February, I expressed my skepticism toward the oil price rebound. Since then, crude oil has given up its gains and fell to new lows in the past week. I have been consistently bearish on crude oil since publishing my viral crude oil crash warning in June 2014, just a couple weeks before it topped and fell from $105 to under $45 today. Many market participants have been expecting oil to finally bottom, but have been wrong each time as crude oil plunged to new lows.
I am still concerned that crude oil has lower to go before finally bottoming, but I am actively analyzing the technical situation to be sure. In January and February, West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded in a range between $44 and $55 per barrel, and finally broke underneath this range this week. This break below the $44 support level represents an important technical breakdown that may signal even more weakness ahead, provided that the bearish signal is not negated by a convincing break back above $44 (and, ideally, $55).
Brent crude oil is still in its trading range between $50 and $65 per barrel. Brent may try to test the $50 support level soon, and if it breaks and stays below that level, it would represent a notable bearish technical signal.
One of the reasons why I have been so skeptical of crude oil’s rally attempts so far is because the all-important $40 psychological level has not been reached yet. This level goes all the way back to the first Gulf War oil panic in 1990, and it doesn’t make sense that oil would fall so far without at least trying to touch $40.
Brent crude oil also bottomed at $40 per barrel during the Global Financial Crisis in early-2009:
In addition, the U.S. dollar’s relentless rise continues to put pressure on crude oil and other commodities due to their inverse relationship. The U.S. Dollar Index is still in a confirmed uptrend, but it is sitting just underneath its key 100 resistance level that must be surpassed to give another bullish signal. If the Dollar Index breaks above 100, it will likely contribute to another bearish move in crude oil. On the other hand, if the Dollar Index is unable to surpass 100 and experiences a technical breakdown below its uptrend lines, crude oil may bounce. How the Dollar Index acts at this level is vital for understanding crude oil’s next move.
The massive glut of crude oil will certainly not help prices recover anytime soon either. According to the EIA, commercial crude oil inventories are sitting at an eighty-year high of 458.5 million barrels. To make matters worse, Iran could add an additional million barrels of oil per day once it comes back online after a deal to lift sanctions – a scenario that I discussed in my original June 2014 oil crash warning. Adding to oil’s woes this week was a comment from an OPEC oil minister stating that the group has “no choice” but to maintain the current rate of oil production to preserve market share.
Another important, but little-discussed, scenario that could lead to crude oil prices hitting $40 or lower is if crude oil speculators finally liquidate their still-sizable long position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts in WTI crude. These crude oil speculators are considered to be the “dumb money” and were most bullish at the very top of the market in June 2014 before oil crashed.
Before markets bottom after a bear market, speculators typically liquidate or capitulate their bullish positions in a panic, which causes powerful sell-offs. This has not happened yet in crude oil and there is a big risk that this event is still ahead. Crude oil speculators had a flat position as recently as 2010, so it certainly isn’t inconceivable for them to go flat once again.
In addition, the commercial hedgers still have a significant short position of nearly 300,000 futures contracts, and they tend to have flat or even net long positions when commodities such as crude oil finally experience bottoms. This has not happened yet, which should be a reason to doubt that the bottom is in.
For now, I am watching if WTI crude oil can sustain its breakdown below $44 and if Brent crude oil can hit $50 or below. The U.S. dollar’s bullish trend should also remain intact in order for this bearish crude oil thesis to play out. If WTI reverses its recent bearish breakdown and rises above $44 and $55, and if Brent crude oil rises above its $65 resistance level, I would consider this bearish thesis nullified for the time being. I do not make hard predictions about short-term price movements, nor do I have to; I simply watch key psychological or technical levels and take a reactive approach. I always have a contingency plan to help determine when a trade thesis is nullified.
Source: Forbes | Hellenic Shipping News
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Sunday, 26 February 23
MAWANI AND JEDDAH CHAMBER SIGN AN AGREEMENT TO BUILD INTEGRATED LOGISTICS PARK
Press Release: The Saudi Ports Authority (Mawani) and Jeddah Chamber of Commerce and Industry have today inked an agreement to set up an integrated ...
Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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