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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 09 February 15
Q2' CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED 3.28% TO $ 56.92 W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.93 (-3.28%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0 ...
Sunday, 08 February 15
BDI FELL CONTINUOUSLY HIT A THREE DECADES LOW
COALspot.com: This week Baltic Exchange Dry Freight Index (BDI) fell continuously hit a three decades low.
The BDI continuously fell and was d ...
Friday, 06 February 15
WEEKLY U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP AN ESTIMATED 1.1% FROM LAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 20.1 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Friday, 06 February 15
SHIP DAMAGED BY FIRE CAUSED BY PIRATES FOUND TO BE CONSTRUCTIVE TOTAL LOSS - TAYLOR WESSING
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The High Court was asked to determine a number of preliminary issues, including whether a vessel was a constructive total ...
Thursday, 05 February 15
BDI HAS NOW FALLEN A LEVEL CLOSE TO THE INDEX'S HISTORIC LOW - INTERMODAL
They say a picture is worth a thousand words and in this instance just one look at the tables above is enough to understand the great pressure the ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
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