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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 February 15
DRY BULK OWNERS SCRAP MORE VESSELS, AS MARKET REACHES HISTORICAL LOWS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has reached historical lows this week, with the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) now trading at levels below operating expense levels for ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE INCHED DOWN 1.44% IN FEBRUARY
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal bench mark price this month to US$ 62.92 pe ...
Thursday, 12 February 15
NEWBUILDING ORDERING ACTIVITY DRAGS ON, AS OWNERS ARE LOOKING FOR LOWER PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners appear to be waiting for lower prices in their dealings with Asian shipyards, as the dry bulk market is at historical lows. According t ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
DRY BULK MARKET REMAINED UNDER PRESSURE : STABILIZING CAPE MARKET HARDLY HELPED SENTIMENT
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market remained under pressure last week, while the stabilizing Cape market hardly helped sentiment.
Greece based s ...
Wednesday, 11 February 15
BDI HITTING THE ALL-TIME LOW; FFA MARKETS NOT SHOWING ANY POSITIVE SIGNS
With the BDI hitting the all-time low and with FFA markets not showing any positive signs for a possible recovery in the near future, pessimism is ...
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- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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