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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 February 15
IRON ORE MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN 2015: PRICE FORECAST $70/T - WOOD MACKENZIE
COALspot.com: With January witnessing the price of iron ore falling to its lowest levels since May 2009, Roger Emslie, Principal Metals & ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ADVANCES 3.79% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q2' 2015 rose week over week and month on month.
The Q2 swap up US$ 0.85 (+1.81%) month o ...
Tuesday, 10 February 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS SURGE WEEK OVER WEEK, RAISING HOPES?
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q2’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 0.95 per MT (+1.91%) week over week and declined US$ 0.06 (-0.12%) ...
Monday, 09 February 15
AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS BEST POSITIONED IN OVERSUPPLIED MARKET; US MINES MOST AT RISK - WOOD MACKENZIE
In a 2015 global coal outlook report, Wood Mackenzie says that Australia and Indonesian coal suppliers will see some upside in the difficult months ...
Monday, 09 February 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP GAINS 3.65% TO ONE-MONTH HIGH
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q2' 2015 surge month over month and day on day.
The Q2 swap has soared US$ 2.1 ...
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- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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