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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 02 February 15
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP PICKS UP W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 0.81 (-1.36%) per MT month over month and gained US$ 0.18&nb ...
Monday, 02 February 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 280K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 280,000 MT of Sub-bituminous coal coa ...
Sunday, 01 February 15
INDONESIA-TO-INDIA COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN WEAK NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI continued its fall reached lowest levels since 1986 this week.
The BDI declined 15.55 pct to 608 points on Friday 30, Ja ...
Friday, 30 January 15
CONTANGO AND TANKERS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Like an invitation to a dance, the word contango may have some people flustered, but for tanker owners this market phenome ...
Friday, 30 January 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED 65.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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