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Wednesday, 04 February 15
MARKET INSIGHT - LINOS KOGEVINAS
 It has been just about over 2 months since, in a move that surprised many and caused widespread apprehension, OPEC decided to maintain its production target (30 million bpd) unchanged signaling a conscious choice to preserve existing market share over oil price. This was a decision that will surely be remembered in the history of oil and has left us all witness to the plummet the barrel price took following this policy and the embrace of market forces.
Oil prices have dropped substantially and have seemingly found some form of stability during the past week. The supply of Crude averaged 30,38m bpd during January, marking a slight increase compared to December. Only the future will determine whether this decision was a sound strategy which could allow OPEC a larger stake of the market when and if oil prices surge upward (if indeed OPEC commits to this policy for the long term).
With everyone feeling the policy effects and with barrel prices averaging between 45-55$, the question on everyone’s minds is whether we have finally reached the bottom or if the freefall will continue. According to the Secretary-General of OPEC, Abdulla al-Badri, the former might be the case. He affirms that we have indeed reached the bottom and anticipates that oil prices will move in a more correctional fashion as the market stabilizes. A bold comment, surely, but not one without merit. It is worth noting that the Secretary-General did not offer any hints towards future OPEC policy changes or more specifically towards the reduction of their production target.
On the other hand T. Boone Pickens has, since early December, declared his certainty that we will return to 100$ levels in the next 12 to 18 months. This prediction however, is firmly linked to the belief that OPEC will not be able to hold their production ceiling for very long and will be forced to revise it accordingly.
Opinions on the question of whether oil price will return to triple digit levels are exceedingly varied. While there is surely evidence to support both claims, it seems to stand to reason that, with OPEC being by and large the most important player in the oil market, any significant increase in oil prices will depend on at least a partial revision of OPEC’s policies. In truth, it seems doubtful that OPEC will be able to maintain the current policies amidst raging market pressure.
There are of course numerous factors directly or indirectly affecting future oil prices. This makes any attempt at a clear prediction troublesome. With current industry investments rapidly leading the industry to a state of underinvestment, production could very well be affected negatively in the medium to long term future.
The instability of the past two months has had a great effect on economies on a global level. Industries left and right have been directly affected by the resulting frenzied conditions. Shipping, being so closely connected to the oil market, has already been affected significantly. However, the future of oil and the effect of its price and supply on the shipping industry is unclear and we will have to keep an eye on a variety of factors in order to be better hedged against adverse market developments.
By Linos Kogevinas
Marketing - Harbour Towage & Port Agency
Cotzias Intermodal Shipping Inc.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 January 15
CAN BULKER CONVERSIONS SPOIL THE TANKER MARKET'S PARTY? - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Oversupply of tonnage has always been in the back of the head of ship owners when it comes to taking advantage of favorable market conditions. As s ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CHINA ENERGY DEMAND MUST BE REVIEWED DUE TO FUNDAMENTAL ECONOMIC CHANGES - WOOD MACKENZIE
New patterns emerging as energy demand growth decoupled significantly from GDP growth for the first time in 2014
Wood Mackenzie says 2014 was ...
Thursday, 29 January 15
CAPE MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING WITH LOW DEMAND AND LOW COMMODITY PRICES
Handy
Supramax rates are heading south with slipping rates all across the block. USG activity is slow with mid-week levels in the mid 8.000s, Fea ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
With most traders having returned to action from year end festivities, we have already seen signs of activity in the specialized product markets. L ...
Wednesday, 28 January 15
CAPES CONTINUED THEIR UPWARD MOVEMENT LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market displayed a mirror performance of that of the week prior, with the Capesize market correcting further upwards and ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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