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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
Sunday, 02 November 14
CAPE INDEX WAS UP 46.65% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI and Cape index continued the strong upward trend this week. The BDI was up 19.80 pct and Cape index was up by 46.65 per ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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