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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 09 November 14
CAPE INDEX UP 3.06%; PANAMAX INDEX FELL 4.05%
COALspot.com: The BDI was almost at same levels compared to last week closing or just increased 0.77 pct from last week. The BDI was closed at 1437 ...
Friday, 07 November 14
U.S. PRODUCED 85.60 MILLION SHORT TONS OF COAL IN OCTOBER, UP 2.88% M-O-M
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.0 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
Thursday, 06 November 14
THE ATLANTIC HAS REMAINED STRONG WITH A HEALTHY SUPPLY OF NEW CARGOES
Handy
This week has continued its slow trend in both hemispheres and even though rates are a bit up w-o-w it is not a clear sign for any improvem ...
Wednesday, 05 November 14
CAPESIZE SEGMENT ENJOYED FIRMING RATES ACROSS BOTH BASINS
Following a fantastic week in terms of rate performance for Capes, the Dry Bulk market managed to note another positive weekly closing, which stron ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
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