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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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