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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Friday, 31 October 14
BUKIT ASAM'S NET PROFIT ROSE 27.42% FOR THE PERIOD JANUARY - SEPTEMBER 2014
COALspot.com: Publicly listed coal miner Bukit Asam reported solid profits in the first nine months of 2014 year.
Coal miner Bukit Asam manage ...
Friday, 31 October 14
U.S PRODUCED AROUND 19.3 MMST OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.3 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
COAL & GRAINS SUPPORT PANAMAX AND IRON ORE SUPPORTS CAPES
Handy
The Atlantic market has been flat this week. Rates are up about US$ 200 from last week on the TA´s, but the volumes are about the sam ...
Thursday, 30 October 14
DOES A LOU ARBITRATION AGREEMENT FOR THE UNDERLYING CARGO CLAIM COMPLETELY REPLACE THE BILL OF LADING ARBITRATION CLAUSE? - INCE &CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
In the context of cargo claims brought under four bills of lading, the Commercial Court has recently considered whether a ...
Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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