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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 19 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - BY KATERINA RESTIS
The current Ebola outbreak in West Africa has been declared as a worldwide health emergency by the World Health Organization and has had a great im ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
VALEMAX DEAL TO DETERMINE DRY BULK MARKET'S FATE - DREWRY MARITIME RESEARCH
Vale’s accord to sell and lease four Valemax vessels to COSCO might have negative repercussions on dry bulk freight rates. Vale has committed ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DELIVERY Q2' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 49.55; DOWN 4.10% M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, gained week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost US ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 66.31; UP 1.33% W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has gained US$ 0.27 (+0.41%) month over month and US$ 0.87 (+1.33%) week ...
Tuesday, 18 November 14
CHEAP OIL PRICES COULD RESHAPE GLOBAL OIL EXPORTING MAP - HELLENIC SHIPPING
Tanker owners have enjoyed a rather healthy 2014, but as the year draws to a close, the fall of oil prices is bound to reshape traditional, as well ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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