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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Thursday, 20 November 14
MOST MAJOR ASIAN ECONOMIES TO BENEFIT FROM LOWER OIL - FITCH
COALspot.com: The 25% drop in the price of oil since July is likely to lift economic growth prospects, improve terms of trade, and have a pot ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
HANDY: INDO ROUNDS ARE BEING FIXED IN REGION OF US$ 10K - FEARNLEYS
Handy
In the Atlantic we have experienced firmer rates this week much lead by the grain activity out of USG. Vsls open in the USG can achieve in ...
Thursday, 20 November 14
DEMAND FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS INCREASES ON THE BACK OF HEIGHTENED FREIGHT RATE MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners are looking to take advantage of favorable market conditions through the acquisition of more dry bulk carriers. According to shipbroker ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
INDONESIA FUEL-PRICE RISE A CLEAR, POSITIVE REFORM SIGNAL - FITCH
COALspot.com: Indonesia's hike of more than 30% in administered fuel prices, announced on 17 November, provides a clear, positive signal of the ...
Wednesday, 19 November 14
CAPES WERE UNDER PRESSURE; LOST 20% WITHIN A WEEK
COALspot.com: " The negative environment in which the week prior ended, marked this past week as well, which closed off on Friday noting the f ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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