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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Sunday, 23 November 14
ITALY'S STEAM COAL IMPORTS TO DROP BY 11% IN 2014 - ASSOCARBONI
COALspot.com: Italy’s steam coal imports expected to drop to 16 million tons in 2014 (-11% compared to 2013); coking coal imports to plunge t ...
Saturday, 22 November 14
THE FALL IN BUNKER PRICES REDUCE FUEL COSTS SIGNIFICANTLY - BIMCO, PETER SAND
For a ship that burns 24 tonnes of fuel per day while steaming, fuel costs are reduced by as much as USD 1 million a year if current price level st ...
Saturday, 22 November 14
DRY BULKERS NEWBUILDING DELIVERIES REACHED 11.8 MILLION DWT DURING THIRD QUARTER, NET FLEET GROWTH FOR 2014 TO REACH 5% - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has rebounded since its less than impressive performance since the start of the year, but overall, third quarter figures could ...
Friday, 21 November 14
BUMI ENTERS INTO CONDITIONAL SALE & PURCHASE AGREEMENT TO SELL FBS STAKE
COALspot.com: PT Bumi Resources Tbk, one of the Indonesia's largest coal producers confirms that it has executed a Conditional Sale and Purchas ...
Friday, 21 November 14
U.S LAST WEEK'S COAL PRODUCTION STAYS FLAT W-O-W
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of the largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal ...
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
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