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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 26 November 14
OVERSUPPLY OF TONNAGE PUSHED PANAMAX SEGMENT DOWN FOR ANOTHER WEEK
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market managed to reverse its course from the week prior and with the sole exception of the Panamax segment, we witnesse ...
Wednesday, 26 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - EVA TZIMA
The tanker market has been enjoying some good returns lately. Ok, that may be a big understatement, but with all the ups and downs of the past year ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FISCAL BREAKEVEN OIL PRICES SHOW SOVEREIGN VULNERABILITY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The vulnerability of the sovereign credit profiles of net oil exporters, as shown by their fiscal breakeven oil prices, suggests that ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
UK: TRIBUNAL RULES ON SPEED AND PERFORMANCE CLAIMS UNDER TWO CONSECUTIVE TIME CHARTERPARTIES - REED SMITH
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
“Owners not to be responsible if the vessel under the currency of this charter party stays at port or anchorage or ...
Tuesday, 25 November 14
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 68.20
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal for delivery Q1' 2015 gained month on month, week on week and day over day.
The Q1 swap has gain ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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