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Wednesday, 05 November 14
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS
 COALspot.com: The steep appreciation in dry bulker values between late 2012 and March 2014 resulted in unrealistically expensive ship values compared to fundamentals and vessel’s earnings. The concurrence of historically low prices in both second-hand and newbuilding markets, which approached the post Asian crisis lows in inflation-adjusted terms, offered the perfect background for asset play, but while several owners attempted to offload tonnage acquired at rock-bottom prices only a dozen of owners managed to successfully do so.
Most real-world buy-low-sell-higher cases concentrated on the flipping of newbuildings contracted at rock-bottom prices when we witnessed Handysize Newbuildings at sub-20musd levels, Ultramaxes at sub-24musd, Kamsarmaxes at rgn 26musd, and Capes at low-mid 40s. Today, after the ongoing correction in newbuildings prices, we still stand well in excess of 10% above previous lows. We do not anticipate witnessing new lows in the Newbuildings market because the costs of creating a new asset, ie, newbuilding prices, are well above previous lows. This is not only due to labor and maker’s inflation but also because of incoming new regulations (notably, Tier III engines, harmonized CSR, etc). Indeed, certain shipbuilders in all major shipbuilding countries have realized this and are more aggressively marketing slots again in advance in order to secure orders which demand a lower cost of construction.
During the same period in the S&P market, volatility prevailed. As far as LME Panamaxes are concerned, ex-Ocean Planet (‘05 Sasebo) was committed in January 2013 by Chartworld at rgn m$15 while ex-Ocean Lily (’06 Imabari) was sold to Sanko close to 25musd this March, resulting in a 2/3 value appreciation in just 14 months. The current correction notoriously commenced back in June with the sale of the ‘Yusho Spica’ at rgn 20musd which marked an abrupt 5musd discount from her same-year built sister ‘Ocean Lily’ sold just 3 months earlier (in March 2014). Asset values were brought back to May 2013 when the ex-Shoyo (76k ’06 Namura) was sold at 20.25musd to Diana. This week’s reported sale of 2008-built Japanese-built Kamsarmax Medi Sentosa at region 19.5musd to Greeks is marginally discounted when compared to the sale of ex-Stefania Lembo (82k, 2010, Tsuneishi – JPN) to Diana Shipping back in September 2013. Interestingly, the price correction for older tonnage Panamax tonnage is steeper. More than a month ago the Japanese controlled Panamax Bulker 'Mishima' (76600kdwt, 2002, Imabari, MAN B&W 6S60) was committed at rgn 12.5musd to Greeks very close to the levels of ex-Archon (75k, Hitachi, 2001, B&W 6S60) which was committed in the end of January 2013 (very close to the bottom) by Greeks at rgn 12.4musd. That said, as far as mid/late 90s Panamaxes the prices are concerned, these are currently very close to the previous bottom.
Two ongoing factors that we need to take into consideration are the weakening Japanese Yen and the price of Oil/Bunkers. The Japanese Yen, which declined to a seven year low versus the dollar, and its outlook after the Bank of Japan unexpectedly increased monetary stimulus that tends to devalue the currency, will further entice more Japanese owners and Builders to sell Vessels and Slots, respectively, and accept less dollars. Moving on to the price of oil, a rule of thumb is that a 10% decrease will increase 0.25% off global growth, while the lower price of Bunkers will hurt the newbuildings ‘eco’ story and will give some support to “non-eco” tonnage. Based on the recent history and the rock-bottom price resistance levels witnessed before, there may be longer-term value in Newbuilding and S&P deals priced south of current market levels.
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 17 November 14
SKULD ISSUES URGENT NOTICE ON BANKRUPTCY OF OW BUNKER A/S
Further to the Association’s advices of 7 November 2014, more information has come to light with respect to the potential impact and scale of ...
Monday, 17 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE CONTINUES FREE FALL; SLUMPS TO 69-MONTH LOW
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia revised down the coal bench mark price once again in November. HBA for t ...
Monday, 17 November 14
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $ 52.75
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.77 (-3.25%) month over month and US$ 0.02 (-0.04%) day ...
Monday, 17 November 14
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SLIGHTLY INCREASED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 1.73 (-2.67%) month over month and US$ 0.10 (-0.16%) da ...
Sunday, 16 November 14
THE BDI LOST 12.59% WEEK ON WEEK; THE BCI LOST 19.95%
COALspot.com: The BDI fell 12.59 percent to 1256 point week on week on Friday 14 November. All the segments were also most down this week. The cape ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Planning Commission, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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