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Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and maybe come out of its lethargy. Instead, the BDI moved below the 1,000 unit mark, a level which has been the psychological market barrier for the past couple of years, and started drawing up a completely different picture for dry bulkers compared to the one we see on the wet side and more specifically the crude sector, said Panos Makrinos, SnP Broker of Intermodal.
The broker further said, dry bulk asset prices keep dropping, expectations look dimmer by the day and new building prices are probably the only indicator in the sector still displaying some sort of resistance refusing to adjust accordingly to this new reality. In addition to the current order book, Vale seems to have finally cracked the "code" for entering its gigantic ships to the Chinese shores and the fate of coal exports to China are currently a big question mark following the new standards set by the government there. Optimism for a stronger Q4 has given its way to panic about next year's outlook and in many cases it feels like we are once again being overrun by sentiment. What's there to look forward to?
According to Intermodal, sale and purchase activity has been at healthy levels and -despite the large number of candidates- the market has remained highly liquid with a wide range of buyers for all sizes and age groups. Demo prices are very strong and activity is finally picking up to reflect the rising need for tonnage exiting the market. Prices for prompt re-sales are in par with new building prices after a long time and vessels being delivered now have little or zero differences from the designs that yards are marketing for construction. These facts along with the rising finance gap that has been widening throughout the year as private equity started to distance itself from shipping should provide enough disincentives for new orders going forward. Isn’t this the perfect storm that counter-cyclical investors are looking for?
Commenting on tankers, Intermodal said, on the other side of the fence, tankers are displaying a much rosier picture. The M/T Ariadni (166,000dwt - blt 2009) is being reported sold for a very solid USD 56.5m and analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook of the crude market, commenting on the low order book and rising demand for higher ton-mile cargo movements. Sale and purchase activity is steadily rising and asset values across all sizes are beating last done values every time. The New building market is also experiencing this euphoria with prices picking up at least 5% within weeks, completing an image very different to the one during the first quarter of the year.
What has changed? Are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot once again? Hopefully market pundits will understand that this long-awaited improvement has been achieved due to the entire sector patiently and painfully working towards a healthier equilibrium and we will avoid making the “recent” mistakes of other sectors...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Tuesday, 04 November 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR 2015 DELIVERIES SHOW A WEAK TREND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week, the trend was same as las ...
Tuesday, 04 November 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.09 (-1.99%) month over month and increased US$ 0.31 (+0.58% ...
Monday, 03 November 14
ADARO PRODUCED 41.90MT OF COAL FOR FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2014
COALspot.com: Adaro’s coal production in the third quarter reached 14.03 Mt, a 2% increase compared to the same period of last year. Accordin ...
Monday, 03 November 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR Q4' 2014 DELIVERY LOST 2.80% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery has decreased US$ 1.86 (-2.80%) month over month and increased US$ 0.37 ( ...
Monday, 03 November 14
INDONESIAN'S COAL EXPORTS JUMP IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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