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Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and maybe come out of its lethargy. Instead, the BDI moved below the 1,000 unit mark, a level which has been the psychological market barrier for the past couple of years, and started drawing up a completely different picture for dry bulkers compared to the one we see on the wet side and more specifically the crude sector, said Panos Makrinos, SnP Broker of Intermodal.
The broker further said, dry bulk asset prices keep dropping, expectations look dimmer by the day and new building prices are probably the only indicator in the sector still displaying some sort of resistance refusing to adjust accordingly to this new reality. In addition to the current order book, Vale seems to have finally cracked the "code" for entering its gigantic ships to the Chinese shores and the fate of coal exports to China are currently a big question mark following the new standards set by the government there. Optimism for a stronger Q4 has given its way to panic about next year's outlook and in many cases it feels like we are once again being overrun by sentiment. What's there to look forward to?
According to Intermodal, sale and purchase activity has been at healthy levels and -despite the large number of candidates- the market has remained highly liquid with a wide range of buyers for all sizes and age groups. Demo prices are very strong and activity is finally picking up to reflect the rising need for tonnage exiting the market. Prices for prompt re-sales are in par with new building prices after a long time and vessels being delivered now have little or zero differences from the designs that yards are marketing for construction. These facts along with the rising finance gap that has been widening throughout the year as private equity started to distance itself from shipping should provide enough disincentives for new orders going forward. Isn’t this the perfect storm that counter-cyclical investors are looking for?
Commenting on tankers, Intermodal said, on the other side of the fence, tankers are displaying a much rosier picture. The M/T Ariadni (166,000dwt - blt 2009) is being reported sold for a very solid USD 56.5m and analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook of the crude market, commenting on the low order book and rising demand for higher ton-mile cargo movements. Sale and purchase activity is steadily rising and asset values across all sizes are beating last done values every time. The New building market is also experiencing this euphoria with prices picking up at least 5% within weeks, completing an image very different to the one during the first quarter of the year.
What has changed? Are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot once again? Hopefully market pundits will understand that this long-awaited improvement has been achieved due to the entire sector patiently and painfully working towards a healthier equilibrium and we will avoid making the “recent” mistakes of other sectors...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 29 October 14
GOOD REASON WHY Q4 CAPESIZE OUTLOOK WAS SO BULLISH AT START OF THE YEAR - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: There was good reason why so many analysts' capesize outlook for Q4 was so very strong at the start of this year. Brazilian ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SGX'S FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR DELIVERY Q1' 2015 CLOSED AT $ 68.07 ON 24 OCT
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.65 (-0.96%) month over month and increased US$ 1.79 (+2. ...
Tuesday, 28 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED 3.68% LOWER MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 lost month on month and gained day on day and week on week.
The swap has lost US ...
Monday, 27 October 14
GOVT PROMISES TO EASE LICENSING PROCEDURES IN MINING SECTOR - THE JAKARTA POST
The Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry’s directorate general for mineral and coal plans to simplify the complicated licensing procedures i ...
Monday, 27 October 14
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 15 DELIVERY CLOSED $ 0.10 LESSER THAN Q4' 14 CLOSING OF $ 53.27 PMT
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.43 (-2.61%) month over month and increased US$ 0.05 (+0.09% ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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