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Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and maybe come out of its lethargy. Instead, the BDI moved below the 1,000 unit mark, a level which has been the psychological market barrier for the past couple of years, and started drawing up a completely different picture for dry bulkers compared to the one we see on the wet side and more specifically the crude sector, said Panos Makrinos, SnP Broker of Intermodal.
The broker further said, dry bulk asset prices keep dropping, expectations look dimmer by the day and new building prices are probably the only indicator in the sector still displaying some sort of resistance refusing to adjust accordingly to this new reality. In addition to the current order book, Vale seems to have finally cracked the "code" for entering its gigantic ships to the Chinese shores and the fate of coal exports to China are currently a big question mark following the new standards set by the government there. Optimism for a stronger Q4 has given its way to panic about next year's outlook and in many cases it feels like we are once again being overrun by sentiment. What's there to look forward to?
According to Intermodal, sale and purchase activity has been at healthy levels and -despite the large number of candidates- the market has remained highly liquid with a wide range of buyers for all sizes and age groups. Demo prices are very strong and activity is finally picking up to reflect the rising need for tonnage exiting the market. Prices for prompt re-sales are in par with new building prices after a long time and vessels being delivered now have little or zero differences from the designs that yards are marketing for construction. These facts along with the rising finance gap that has been widening throughout the year as private equity started to distance itself from shipping should provide enough disincentives for new orders going forward. Isn’t this the perfect storm that counter-cyclical investors are looking for?
Commenting on tankers, Intermodal said, on the other side of the fence, tankers are displaying a much rosier picture. The M/T Ariadni (166,000dwt - blt 2009) is being reported sold for a very solid USD 56.5m and analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook of the crude market, commenting on the low order book and rising demand for higher ton-mile cargo movements. Sale and purchase activity is steadily rising and asset values across all sizes are beating last done values every time. The New building market is also experiencing this euphoria with prices picking up at least 5% within weeks, completing an image very different to the one during the first quarter of the year.
What has changed? Are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot once again? Hopefully market pundits will understand that this long-awaited improvement has been achieved due to the entire sector patiently and painfully working towards a healthier equilibrium and we will avoid making the “recent” mistakes of other sectors...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 27 October 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS PERFORMED POSITIVE THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 1.68 (-2.55%) month over month and increased US$ 0.87 (+1.3 ...
Sunday, 26 October 14
CAPE'S STRONG PERFORMANCE PUSHES BDI INDEX UPWARDS
COALspot.com: The BDI was up by 26.27 pct and closed at 1192 points week and week. The Cape size performance has pushed up BDI and Cape size index ...
Friday, 24 October 14
WEEKLY U.S COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 2.7% FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 18
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 18.7 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 23 October 14
THE BEARS, HOWEVER, STILL CRY; FOR HOW LONG WILL IT LAST? - FEARNLEYS
Handy
"We experience a typical oversupply of ships in the Atlantic which causing rates to slide. In the USG it is just enough cargoes to kee ...
Wednesday, 22 October 14
MARKET INSIGHT - THEODORE NTALAKOS, INTERMODAL
ECO designs - revisited
The ECO vessels are already here but the oil and bunker prices are plummeting to their cheapest level since 2010. Is this ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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