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Thursday, 16 October 14
ARE WE GOING TO SHOOT OURSELVES IN THE FOOT ONCE AGAIN? - PANOS MAKRINOS
 As the East part of our globe was coming back from its October holidays last week, everyone expected that the Dry Bulk market would follow suit and maybe come out of its lethargy. Instead, the BDI moved below the 1,000 unit mark, a level which has been the psychological market barrier for the past couple of years, and started drawing up a completely different picture for dry bulkers compared to the one we see on the wet side and more specifically the crude sector, said Panos Makrinos, SnP Broker of Intermodal.
The broker further said, dry bulk asset prices keep dropping, expectations look dimmer by the day and new building prices are probably the only indicator in the sector still displaying some sort of resistance refusing to adjust accordingly to this new reality. In addition to the current order book, Vale seems to have finally cracked the "code" for entering its gigantic ships to the Chinese shores and the fate of coal exports to China are currently a big question mark following the new standards set by the government there. Optimism for a stronger Q4 has given its way to panic about next year's outlook and in many cases it feels like we are once again being overrun by sentiment. What's there to look forward to?
According to Intermodal, sale and purchase activity has been at healthy levels and -despite the large number of candidates- the market has remained highly liquid with a wide range of buyers for all sizes and age groups. Demo prices are very strong and activity is finally picking up to reflect the rising need for tonnage exiting the market. Prices for prompt re-sales are in par with new building prices after a long time and vessels being delivered now have little or zero differences from the designs that yards are marketing for construction. These facts along with the rising finance gap that has been widening throughout the year as private equity started to distance itself from shipping should provide enough disincentives for new orders going forward. Isn’t this the perfect storm that counter-cyclical investors are looking for?
Commenting on tankers, Intermodal said, on the other side of the fence, tankers are displaying a much rosier picture. The M/T Ariadni (166,000dwt - blt 2009) is being reported sold for a very solid USD 56.5m and analysts are becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook of the crude market, commenting on the low order book and rising demand for higher ton-mile cargo movements. Sale and purchase activity is steadily rising and asset values across all sizes are beating last done values every time. The New building market is also experiencing this euphoria with prices picking up at least 5% within weeks, completing an image very different to the one during the first quarter of the year.
What has changed? Are we going to shoot ourselves in the foot once again? Hopefully market pundits will understand that this long-awaited improvement has been achieved due to the entire sector patiently and painfully working towards a healthier equilibrium and we will avoid making the “recent” mistakes of other sectors...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 November 14
PORT OF NEWCASTLE'S OCTOBER COAL SHIPMENTS SLIPPED 7.40% M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1,115.7 mil ...
Monday, 10 November 14
Q4' 15 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED LOWER THAN Q1' 15 CLOSING PRICE OF US$ 49.58 ON LAST FRIDAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q1' 2015 lost month on month, week on week and day on day.
The Q1 swap has lost just US$ ...
Monday, 10 November 14
SGX'S API 4 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 65.44 ON 7 NOV, LOST 4.08% M-O-M
COALspot.com: API 4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 2.78 (-4.08%) month over month and US$ 1.41 (-2.11%) w ...
Monday, 10 November 14
MOZAMBIQUE SIGNED CONTRACT WITH ETA STAR OF UAE FOR OPEN CAST COAL MINE IN TETE - AIM
- ETA Star to build slurry pipeline over the 600 kilometers to Beira in Mozambique to transport coal.
- The viability studies show the presence o ...
Monday, 10 November 14
YEAR 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP SHOWS A WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q1’ 2015 delivery has decreased US$ 3.74 (-5.63%) month over month and US$ 2.19 (+3.37%) we ...
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- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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