We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Friday, 23 February 24
STRONG OUTLOOK FOR THE TANKER MARKET IN 2024 AND BEYOND - DNV
Several factors have aligned over the past two years to create a robust and profitable market for tanker owners, which is expected to drive newbuil ...
Friday, 23 February 24
AUSTRALIAN COAL FLOWS TO ASIA HOVER ABOVE LAST YEAR’S VOLUME TONNES - SIGNAL GROUP
In the final days of February, the dry bulk freight market appeared to maintain a relatively stable momentum, particularly evident in the large ves ...
Friday, 23 February 24
RUSSIAN COAL SHIPMENTS FALL 14% AS SANCTIONS BITE - BIMCO
During the first seven weeks of 2024, Russian coal shipments have fallen 14% y/y. Volumes have gradually declined since October 2023 when logistica ...
Thursday, 22 February 24
BIMCO PUBLISHES SHIP FINANCING FORMS TO ENSURE UNINTERRUPTED USE OF SHIPS
BIMCO has published two standard Quiet Enjoyment Letters (QELs), the first standard form QELs available to the industry, to offer a tool that can e ...
Monday, 19 February 24
METALS INVESTMENT: THE DARKEST HOUR IS JUST BEFORE THE DAWN - WOOD MACKENZIE
Things often seem at their worst just before they get better. In terms of meeting our net zero 2050 scenario, we’ve reached a watershed momen ...
|
|
|
Showing 31 to 35 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
|
| |
| |
|
