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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per m ...
Monday, 12 February 24
US THERMAL COAL EXPORTS HIT 5-YEAR HIGHS AND TOP $5 BLN IN 2023 - REUTERS
United States exporters of thermal coal earned more than $5 billion in 2023 as they shipped out more than 32.5 million metric tons of the high-poll ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
NEW E-FUELS PROJECT TO MAKE INTERNATIONAL SHIPPING CLIMATE-NEUTRAL - RINA
Transport and trade on the ocean blue must be made much greener. This is the goal of the new €17 million European GAMMA project, where compani ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA SEES ANNUAL COAL OUTPUT UP 10.9% IN 2024/25 - REUTERS
India expects domestic coal output to increase by 10.9% to 1.13 billion metric tons in the fiscal year ending March 2025, a senior government offic ...
Tuesday, 06 February 24
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASES BY 10.3% TO 99.73 MILLION TONNE IN JANUARY - PTI
The country’s coal output rose 10.3 per cent to 99.73 Million Tonne (MT) in January, over the same month in the previous fiscal.
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- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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