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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Friday, 22 March 24
INDONESIA APPROVES 922.14 MLN T COAL PRODUCTION QUOTA FOR 2024, ABOVE TARGET - REUTERS
Indonesia has approved coal production quotas totalling 922.14 million metric tons for 2024, Bambang Suswantono, a senior official at the mining mi ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CHINA COAL INDUSTRY GROUP EXPECTS OUTPUT GROWTH TO SLOW IN 2024 - REUTERS
China’s coal output is expected to increase 36 million metric tons, or 0.8%, to about 4.7 billion tonnes in 2024, a Chinese coal industry gro ...
Monday, 18 March 24
THREE KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM OUR EUROPE GAS MARKETS SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK Q1 2024 - WOOD MACKENZIE
European gas prices are currently back to pre-crisis levels, but with a complex series of factors affecting future supply and demand, are they set ...
Wednesday, 06 March 24
INDONESIA AIMS TO FINISH MINING OUTPUT QUOTAS APPROVAL BY END-MARCH, OFFICIAL SAYS - REUTERS
Indonesia’s has approved the mining production quotarequests from more than 120mineral companies and aims to complete the approval process th ...
Monday, 04 March 24
IS YOUR GUARANTEE A GUARANTEE? NOTE TO SHIPOWNERS - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The law of guarantees is not always obvious or easy to understand without proper guidance. This article clarifies the dif ...
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Showing 26 to 30 news of total 6871 |
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- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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