We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 12 June 24
CHINA ACCOUNTS FOR 16.3% OF AUSTRALIA'S COAL EXPORTS, FOLLOWED BY INDIA 14.4% - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels says Banchero Costa in its latest report.
...
Wednesday, 12 June 24
LNG NEWBUILDING VALUES AT RECORD HIGH: 78 NEWBUILD ORDERS PLACED IN 2024, DOUBLING 2023 - VESON NAUTICAL
The number of LNG newbuilding orders have more than doubled from the same period last year where 34 orders were placed, compared to 78 in the first ...
Monday, 10 June 24
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS RISE 11% ON LOWER DOMESTIC OUTPUT - REUTERS
China’s imports of coal rose 11% in May from a year earlier, customs data and Reuters records showed on Friday, as lower domestic output this ...
Tuesday, 04 June 24
HOW DO WESTERN SANCTIONS ON RUSSIA IMPACT THE GLOBAL METALS, MINING AND COAL MARKETS - WOOD MACKENZIE
The geopolitical landscape for Russia, as a major supplier of various commodities, has undergone a dramatic transformation since the invasion of Uk ...
Friday, 22 March 24
CASE STUDY: DANGERS OF COAL CARGO - SKULD
Recently, a bulk cargo vessel carrying coal from South Africa to Singapore suffered a fatal accident, resulting in the deaths of three crew members ...
|
|
|
Showing 21 to 25 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
|
| |
| |
|
