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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Friday, 28 June 24
INDIAN POWER STATIONS STOCKED WITH BUMPER COAL SUPPLY AS TRANSPORT WOES EASE - BUSINESS STANDARD
Even as power demand has touched a historic high of 250 gigawatts (Gw) amid sweltering heat this June, India’s power stations are stocked wit ...
Friday, 28 June 24
INDIA'S CY23 COAL USE LARGER THAN NORTH AMERICA, EUROPE COMBINED - THE HINDU
For the first time, India’s coal consumption surpassed that of North America and Europe combined in the calendar year 2023, said Energy Insti ...
Monday, 24 June 24
PLN'S FINANCIAL SUSTAINABILITY RESTS ON ACCELERATED COAL RETIREMENT AND RENEWABLES DEPLOYMENT - MUTYA YUSTIKA
On 28 May 2024, Indonesia’s national electricity utility, PT Perusahaan Listrik Negara (PLN), released its financial report for 2023. Althoug ...
Monday, 24 June 24
INDIA'S COAL-BASED POWER DEMAND AT ALL-TIME HIGH, GOVERNMENT SAYS - REUTERS
India’s demand for coal-based power has risen by 7.3% this fiscal year to an all-time high, the government said in a statement on Wednesday.
...
Monday, 24 June 24
CHINA'S COAL INDUSTRY TURNS GREENER THROUGH INNOVATIVE APPROACHES - PEOPLE'S DAILY
At an opencast mine operated by Inner Mongolia Pingzhuang Coal Group Co. Ltd., a subsidiary of CHN Energy Investment Group (CHN Energy), a 14-meter ...
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Showing 11 to 15 news of total 6871 |
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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