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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 01 October 14
ASIAN THERMAL COAL PRICES TO REMAIN WEAK ON OVERSUPPLY - FITCH
COALspot.com: The thermal coal market in Asia will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months, in spite of on-going rationalisation of production, a ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
PANAMAXES: DEFENSIVE, STRUGGLING TO KEEP ANY FURTHER DECREASES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market seemed unable to shake off the trend of the week prior and the BDI remained on a downward slope for the bigger pa ...
Wednesday, 01 October 14
FITCH: GLOBAL ECONOMY FACES MULTI-SPEED RECOVERY, MULTIPLE RISKS
Fitch Ratings says in its latest Global Economic Outlook (GEO) that global growth will pick up in 2015 and 2016, but risks are weighted to the down ...
Tuesday, 30 September 14
COALVIEW TO PARTICIPATE AT MET COKE WORLD SUMMIT 2014 IN CHICAGO
COALspot.com: Coalview Ltd., LLC(“Coalview”) America's leading fully integrated coal technology and fine coal recovery company prov ...
Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORT VOLUME FALL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: Indonesia, one of the world's largest coal producers and the global leading multi grade coal exporter shipped around $1.50 ...
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- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PTC India Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Australian Coal Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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