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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 29 September 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS LOST WEEK ON WEEK AND MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for average November 2014 flat day on day and lost US$ 0.85 (-1.66%) per mt week on week. The swap also lost US ...
Monday, 29 September 14
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL LOST AROUND 5% MONTH ON MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 3.55 (-5.10%) month over month and flat week over week.
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Sunday, 28 September 14
FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA IS EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market shows a bit weak trend this week.
The BDI was lost 2.42% week on week and closed at 1049 points on 26 Se ...
Sunday, 28 September 14
BERAU AGREES DEAL WITH GOVT, MINING AREA REDUCED - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal miner PT Berau Coal, a subsidiary of Jakarta-listed PT Berau Coal Energy (BRAU), has signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with the gover ...
Saturday, 27 September 14
OIL MARKET CONTANGO: SPECULATION ON FUTURE PRICES CAN BE A RISKY MOVE, EVEN FOR TANKER OWNERS HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite the fact that tanker owners can easily use their vessels as floating storage units for oil, in a bid to exploit the current oil market dyna ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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