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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 06 October 14
' COAL-BY-WIRE' FROM SUMATRA TO JAVA - THE JAKARTA POST
Coal from the island of Sumatra accounts for most of Indonesia’s low-grade lignite, a low-quality coal that receives a poor price in internat ...
Monday, 06 October 14
THE IRON ORE SHIPPING BUSINESS IS FACING SOME ROUGH SEAS - EAST ASIA FORUM
The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformat ...
Sunday, 05 October 14
BALTIC DRY INDEX SLIPS 1.14%; BALTIC PANAMAX INDEX GAINED 9.91% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI was down by 1.14 pct and closed at 1037 points this Friday.
The Cape index was down significantly week on week or lost 5 ...
Friday, 03 October 14
U.S. WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION UP 5.8% TO 19.9 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world's one of largest coal producers, produced approximately 19.9 million short tons (mmst) of co ...
Thursday, 02 October 14
CAPESIZE - DULL AND WITHOUT MUCH DIRECTION AS IRON ORE AND COAL VOLUMES FAIL TO LIVE UP EXPECTATIONS
Handy
After the recent weeks´ rate increase in the Atlantic we see Panamaxes snapping up handymax and Supra cargoes at much lower levels, p ...
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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