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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Wednesday, 08 October 14
IS THERE ANY BRIGHT SIDE ON THE DRY BULK SEGMENT? - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
In the movie “Life Of Brian”, a character on a nearby cross was singing the famous “Always look on the bright side of life” ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 525K MT OF LOW ASH AND EXTRA LOW SULFUR SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 525,000 metric tons of low ash and extra low sulfur sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWS A FLAT TO WEAK TREND THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps November 2014 delivery flat week on week and gained US$ 0.10 (-0.20%) per mt day on day. The swap also lost US$ ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
THE RIO TINTO CONFIRMS THAT NO DISCUSSIONS ARE TAKING PLACE WITH GLENCORE
COALspot.com: The board of Rio Tinto notes the recent press speculation regarding a possible combination of Rio Tinto and Glencore.The Rio Tinto bo ...
Tuesday, 07 October 14
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP HEADED SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for delivery in November 2014 decreased US$ 1.10 (-1.64%) month over month and US$ 0.25 (-0.38%) ...
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- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
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