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Wednesday, 08 October 14
OIL COULD FALL TO USD80 BEFORE SHALE SUPPLY RESPONSE - FITCH
 COALspot.com: Brent oil could fall as low as USD80 a barrel before triggering a self-correcting supply response with shale-oil drillers cutting investment in new wells, Fitch Ratings says.
According to Fitch, the steep rate at which production from shale wells declines mean companies have to keep drilling new wells to maintain production. We estimate median full-cycle costs for US exploration and production companies have fallen to about USD70. The marginal barrel, not the median one, balances supply and demand and determines price, so the point at which capex falls will probably be higher. Exactly where depends on expectations of future price. Anecdotally we understand that at USD90/bbl capex is likely to continue at full speed, while at USD75-80/bbl it may fall. This would have a relatively rapid impact on production, suggesting a notional price floor.
Fitch noted that, in the short term we consider a resurgence of supply disruptions and positive action from OPEC the most likely catalysts for a rebound in prices. But without these, further declines might be possible, especially if evidence grows of further weakening of global demand or increasing OPEC spare capacity.
The notional floor is well below the USD100/bbl level that many market participants thought was here to stay earlier this year. But in the last two weeks Brent crude has fallen - and stayed - significantly below USD100/bbl, and WTI crude has fallen below USD90/bbl for the first time since 2012. The difference between the two benchmarks has shrunk to around USD2.50, and forward curves also indicate weakness, Fitch noted.
The key supports for USD100+ oil were growing demand, tight OPEC spare capacity, increasing cost of supply, particularly combined with rapid depletion rates for shale wells, OPEC's desire for high oil prices, and political and security issues in key regions.
Fitch further noted, demand has been the clearest change in the short term, but is also the element that may most reliably reverse in the long term. If China and India grow as expected demand could rise by up to a third in the next 20-30 years - but this does not preclude short-term weakness.
OPEC has declared support for prices at USD100/bbl. Some members would prefer this price or higher, but we estimate Saudi Arabia, which would have to absorb the greatest production cuts, would be able to balance its budget at USD94/bbl. A lot will therefore ride on the outcome of OPEC's next meeting in November, said Fitch.
The geopolitical and security picture has not resulted in the predicted fall in production. Progress is being made on Iranian sanctions; Iraqi production has remained robust; Libyan production is starting to recover. Market sentiment suggests the effects of these situations will remain benign - but there is potential for this to reverse quite rapidly.
We do not expect rating implications from the price dip in the short term. Our corporate and sovereign ratings use price assumptions that drop over time, and companies and governments have shown themselves able to adjust spending to weaker prices if necessary. The rising US dollar, which has strengthened against the euro by around 10% since the middle of the year, is also contributing to weakness in oil prices when expressed in dollar terms, as our price decks are.
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Monday, 13 October 14
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q1' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT US$ 54.92, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2014 decreased US$ 0.80 (-1.46%) month over month and US$ 0.52 (-0.95%) week over ...
Monday, 13 October 14
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS FOR DELIVERY Q4' 2014 GAINED WEEK ON WEEK AND DAY ON DAY
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swaps for delivery Q4' 2014 gained week on week and day on day.
The swap lost US$ 0.13 (-0.25%) month on mon ...
Monday, 13 October 14
Q1' 2015 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 0.31 PMT HIGHER THAN Q4' 2014 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q4’ 2014 delivery decreased US$ 0.66 (-1.00%) month over month and US$ 0.40 (-0.61%) ...
Sunday, 12 October 14
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: This week all the segments softened. The BDI down 7.13 pct week on week and closed below 1000 points at 963 points.
The Cape ind ...
Saturday, 11 October 14
COAL PRODUCTION RISES ONLY SLIGHTLY AS GOVT LIMITS MINING OPERATIONS - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesian coal production rose by only 4 percent in the first nine months of this year, a relatively low increase compared to previous years, as t ...
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- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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